by Rebecca Stevenson
Contributing Writer

The winter season is approaching fast and it could come with more rain, wind and snow than last year.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its threemonth outlook, which calls for above-normal precipitation and equal chances for above, below or normal temperatures.

Does this mean that we should keep snow boots in the car along with tire chains to make it to class, or does it mean that your rainy day fund should be invested in a ski pass? Although that decision can’t be made at this point, you can create a plan for bad weather this year.

A weather pattern called La Niña has developed and is expected to strengthen through the early part of 2008. It has a history of causing lowland snowfall, windstorms and record mountain snowfall in the Northwest and generally occurs every three to five years.

This sounds like a promising year for throwing snowballs in Pike Place Market and a good season for new skis, but there is a catch: Even though La Niña has brought us more windstorms and lowland snow events, there isn’t an ironclad guarantee from Mother Nature. It’s just a shift in odds that these storms are a little more likely.

“We have had La Niña’s that produced no lowland snow; so it becomes a 50/50 chance whether we have snow. We look for clues that might tip the scale one way or the other,” couched Brad Colman, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service (NWS).

“The fly in the ointment is that the Northwest has been in a trend the last 10 years, of winters that are warmer than normal. If we didn’t have a warming trend, it’s more likely that this winter would be cold.”

Although the weather could bring a wet and typical Seattle winter, don’t ditch your plan for the perfect pass around a mogul yet. The atmosphere is chaotic, so there remains the possibility of arctic outbreaks along with a swing to a few sunny winter days.

Johnny Burg, a forecaster at the NWS, observes the seasonal outlooks from the CPC, keeping trends in mind, but does not forecast each individual storm by the outlook. He offers a glimpse of hope (or despair, if you have to drive everywhere) for a snowy winter.

“When forecasting you can see the individual storm a week out, if you are lucky,” he said.

“A more accurate vision is about 48 hours out or less, and then you have a better view of what is developing. Sometimes, the farther out in time a storm is, the more likely the forecast will depend on whether or not the meteorologist is a pessimist or an optimist.”